"Weather and (crop) rotational patterns, I think, will be the major factors next spring," USDA Chief Economist Keith Collins told Reuters. Energy prices would be secondary.
During a Senate Agriculture Committee hearing, Collins said farm fuel expenses were up 40 percent this year, to $11.6 billion. The last time farmers saw a 40 percent increase was 1980, he said.
"This cuts into profitability, the bottom line of producers," said Collins. "The saving grace is very high" farm income levels.
Net farm income, a USDA gauge of farm sector profitability, is forecast this year for $71.5 billion, second highest on record although down 11 percent from 2004.
Michigan Democrat Debbie Stabenow proposed a $500 tax rebate to help producers pay fuel and heating bills. Democrats Max Baucus of Montana, Ken Salazar of Colorado and Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas said farmers and ranchers needed help.
After the hearing, Collins said he expected total US crop acreage in 2006 "will be close to this year's level" and "I don't foresee at this point big shifts" among crop plantings. "Rotational patterns are very firm," he said.
While rising fuel, fertiliser and pesticide prices may make corn less attractive, market prices for soybeans at present provide little inducement to switch to the oilseed, said Collins.
This year, farmers planted 81.6 million acres of corn, 72.7 million acres of soybeans, 57.1 million acres of wheat and 14.18 million acres of cotton.